2024 marked a significant year in climate change, with global temperatures reaching unprecedented levels and CO2 emissions hitting new highs. Despite the alarming trends, there were also positive developments in renewable energy and international climate negotiations. Looking ahead, predictions for 2025 suggest a continued focus on climate finance and the potential for significant changes in global emissions trajectories.
As 2024 comes to a close, it is essential to reflect on the significant climate stories that shaped the year, review previous predictions, and make new forecasts for the future. This year was marked by alarming temperature increases and CO2 emissions, but also by notable advancements in renewable energy and international climate negotiations.
For the first time, global average temperatures were recorded at 1.12°C warmer than pre-industrial levels. It is crucial to note that this does not indicate a permanent crossing of the 1.5°C threshold, which requires sustained warming over decades. The current anomaly is expected to decrease next year due to natural factors, particularly the transition from El Niño to La Niña, which typically cools global temperatures.
In May 2024, atmospheric CO2 concentrations reached a new record of 46.9 PPM. Carbon emissions from energy-related activities are projected to peak at 37.4 billion tons, reflecting a 0.8% increase from the previous year. While emissions in the EU and the US saw slight declines, significant increases were noted in India and China, with the latter's emissions rising by 0.2% this year.
Despite the alarming headlines, the global emissions picture is complex. The Global Carbon Project reported a rebound in the carbon land sink, indicating that forests and wetlands are effectively absorbing carbon again. Additionally, deforestation rates in the Amazon have decreased by 50% over the past two years, showcasing some positive trends amidst the challenges.
2024 witnessed numerous natural disasters exacerbated by climate change. Heatwaves affected regions in India, Pakistan, and West Africa, while flooding intensified in various locations, including Spain and India. The Atlantic hurricane season was particularly devastating, and the largest coral bleaching event in history occurred, affecting 77% of the Earth's coral areas due to marine heatwaves.
The year was marked by a record number of elections and international negotiations, with mixed outcomes. Notable elections included Indonesia's, which raised concerns about coal and deforestation policies, and India's, where Prime Minister Modi's position weakened slightly, potentially leading to stronger climate policies in the future.
International negotiations, however, faced significant challenges. COP 16 in Colombia ended in disarray, and discussions for a global plastics treaty collapsed in South Korea. COP 29 in Abu Dhabi was characterized by organizational incompetence and a walkout by developing nations over climate finance issues, leaving many unresolved matters.
Despite the challenges, 2024 saw a record increase in electricity generated from renewable sources, surpassing 30%. The International Energy Agency (IEA) believes that global electricity emissions have peaked and will decline, driven by the rapid growth of renewables and a shift away from coal. The G7 committed to phasing out coal by 2035, and the UK made headlines by shutting down its last coal-fired power plant.
Reflecting on last year's predictions, several outcomes were confirmed, including the continuation of marine heatwaves and the deepening climate culture war. Looking ahead to 2025, several predictions can be made:
2024 was a pivotal year in the climate narrative, highlighting both the escalating impacts of climate change and the growing momentum of the global response. The challenges are immense, but the solutions are more accessible and affordable than ever. As we move into 2025, the choices we make will determine the trajectory of our climate future, emphasizing the importance of proactive measures and international cooperation in combating climate change.
