Crumbl Cookies has rapidly grown into a billion-dollar cookie chain by leveraging social media, limited-time flavors, and a unique customer experience. However, recent declines in store revenue and social media engagement raise questions about its sustainability and future strategies.
Every Sunday night, a familiar ritual unfolds in homes across America. People curl up on their couches, scrolling through the Crumbl Cookies app, eagerly anticipating the new flavor releases. This weekly tradition has become a cultural phenomenon, with families deliberating over which cookies to try, as if making a life-altering decision. With Crumbl's cookies priced at a premium, this excitement is understandable. But what is it about Crumbl that has captivated so many?
Crumbl Cookies, which began in Logan, Utah, in 2017, has transformed into a billion-dollar business, selling over 300 million cookies annually. This rapid growth raises questions about how Crumbl has managed to stand out in a crowded cookie market and whether its success is sustainable or just a passing trend.
Cookies are a staple dessert, made from simple ingredients like flour, sugar, and butter. Despite their simplicity, the cookie market is saturated with options. To succeed, brands must carve out a niche. For instance, Insomnia Cookies, founded in 2003, focused on late-night delivery, catering primarily to college students. On the other hand, Levain Bakery, established in 1995, offered massive, gourmet cookies exclusive to New York City, creating a sense of luxury and specialness.
While both brands found success, neither achieved the scale of Crumbl. Since its inception, Crumbl has expanded to over 1,000 locations across the U.S. and Canada, with 96% of those stores opening since 2020. This sheer scale is unprecedented in the cookie industry.
Crumbl's strategy borrows from the fashion industry, introducing new flavors weekly. This approach generates excitement and urgency among customers, akin to sneaker drops. Each week, fans eagerly anticipate the new lineup, which includes flavors like snickerdoodle cupcake and frozen hot chocolate. This sense of scarcity turns cookies into collectible items, driving customers to act quickly before their favorites disappear.
From the outset, Crumbl recognized the importance of social media in its marketing strategy. The brand's iconic pink box, developed in collaboration with the Pantone Color Institute, has become a recognizable symbol, akin to Tiffany Blue. Each new flavor drop serves as content for influencers, who unbox and review the cookies, flooding platforms like TikTok and Instagram with engaging content.
Crumbl's social media presence is impressive, boasting 9.6 million followers on TikTok and 6.1 million on Instagram. In comparison, Starbucks, a global giant, has only 2.2 million TikTok followers. The Crumbl app has also seen significant success, with 6.4 million downloads in the U.S., consistently ranking high in the food and drink category.
Despite its meteoric rise, Crumbl is not immune to market fluctuations. In 2023, the average store revenue for Crumbl franchises dropped by 37%, from $1.8 million to $1.16 million. This decline marks the first time the company has reported a decrease in average unit volume (AUV). Franchisees are feeling the pinch, with rising fees and operational costs cutting into profits. Some locations have reported losses of up to $240,000, leading to closures.
Crumbl's social media engagement is also showing signs of decline. Flavor announcements that once garnered over 150,000 likes are now averaging between 20,000 and 50,000 likes. While the hashtag #CrumblCookies continues to rack up billions of views, customer sentiment is shifting. Some fans express fatigue over constant recipe changes and the high price point of $5 per cookie.
As trends in the dessert industry come and go, Crumbl is taking steps to diversify its offerings. The company is experimenting with new desserts, including brownies, pies, and ice cream, aiming to attract a broader audience. This strategy mirrors that of Mrs. Fields, which expanded its product line to boost sales.
Crumbl is also planning international expansion, with plans to enter markets in Australia and the UK. However, in the U.S., the company is slowing its growth, opening fewer than 125 stores in 2023, a significant drop from the previous year's 300-plus openings.
Crumbl Cookies has successfully created a viral sensation around its brand, but the question remains: can it maintain this momentum? The company's ability to navigate financial challenges and shifting consumer preferences will be crucial in determining whether it can continue to thrive as a dessert destination or if it will crumble under pressure. The cookie empire's future hangs in the balance, and only time will tell if it can adapt and evolve in a rapidly changing market.
