The US economy posted a robust 4.3% GDP growth in Q3 2025, reaching all-time highs in the stock market, driven by consumer spending, government expenditure, and AI-driven capital expenditure. However, strong economic data reduces the likelihood of interest rate cuts, impacting global liquidity. India experienced a record year in IPO fundraising with ₹175,000 crore raised across 103 IPOs, alongside rising exports and commodity prices, signaling a positive outlook despite global liquidity concerns
Welcome to the latest update from Yada Investment Academy. In this comprehensive market review, we cover key developments from the US economy, Indian markets, commodity trends, and IPO activity as we close out 2025.
The US stock markets were closed on Christmas Day, but recent data reveals significant economic strength. On December 24th, despite a truncated trading session, the S&P 500 touched new all-time highs, reflecting optimism driven by strong economic indicators.
The US reported a 4.3% GDP growth for the third quarter (September quarter) of 2025, marking the fastest growth in two years. This growth was supported by:
This strong GDP performance has been widely accepted without challenge, reinforcing confidence in the economy.
The payroll numbers also showed positive trends with new jobs created and unemployment rates remaining stable, further supporting economic resilience. Inflation remains under control, which is a positive sign for sustained growth.
Despite expectations in the market for two to three interest rate cuts in 2026, the strong economic data reduces the probability of such cuts. The Federal Reserve, led by outgoing Chair Jerome Powell, is unlikely to lower rates significantly given the robust GDP and controlled inflation.
Former President Donald Trump has expressed hopes that the new Fed Chair nominee will lower borrowing costs, but markets remain skeptical about rapid or substantial rate cuts.
If interest rates are not cut, liquidity in the global markets may not increase as much as anticipated. Lower rates typically lead to easier credit and more money printing, which fuels liquidity. Without these cuts, global liquidity growth could be limited, posing challenges especially for emerging markets that rely on foreign institutional investments.
India has witnessed a remarkable year in its capital markets and export sector.
In 2025, India’s main board saw a record ₹175,000 crore raised through 103 IPOs, surpassing the ₹159,000 crore raised in 2024. This surge reflects strong investor demand, supported by substantial SIP inflows of ₹30,000 to ₹33,000 crore.
The increasing number of IPOs and capital raised indicates a growing and expanding market, which is positive for the future stability and strength of Indian markets.
Exports have shown an upside trend, contributing positively to the GDP and overall economic health.
Commodity prices have also been favorable:
These rallies are supported by factors such as the depreciation of the US dollar, increased central bank reserves, and a slight trend towards de-dollarization.
Other commodities like copper, palladium, and platinum have also experienced significant growth in 2025.
As 2025 draws to a close, the global economic landscape presents a mixed picture. The US economy is performing strongly with impressive GDP growth and employment figures, but this strength reduces the chances of interest rate cuts, potentially limiting liquidity growth worldwide.
India, meanwhile, is capitalizing on strong domestic demand, record IPO fundraising, and rising exports, positioning itself well for future growth despite global headwinds.
Investors should monitor these dynamics closely as they plan for 2026, balancing optimism about economic growth with caution regarding liquidity and interest rate developments.
Stay tuned for more updates and insights from Yada Investment Academy as we continue to track these evolving market trends.
