The NCAA tournament continues with eight exciting nighttime games in the round of 64 on Thursday. Steve Merrill from Wager Talk TV offers comprehensive free plays and analysis for each game, helping bettors make informed decisions. This article covers all eight games, including key insights, betting lines, and strategic advice.
Overview
Steve Merrill reminds viewers that he has already provided analysis for the eight early daytime games on Thursday in a separate video. He will also return with predictions for Friday's games. Merrill emphasizes that he provides free plays for every game from the first four through the Final Four and National Championship.
Thursday Night Games Analysis
1. VCU (11) vs. North Carolina (6) – 6:50 PM ET on TNT (Greenville, SC)
- Matchup: Two evenly matched teams with a slight home-court edge for North Carolina.
- Betting Line: North Carolina favored by about a basket; VCU +2.5 points.
- Analysis: Merrill favors VCU as a live underdog due to North Carolina missing key player Caleb Wilson (out for the season). VCU is a better three-point shooting team and defends the three well.
- Over/Under: Opened at 154, dropped to 152.5; historically, first-round games go under 70% of the time.
- Recommendation: Take VCU +2.5 points.
2. Michigan (1) vs. Howard (16) – 7:10 PM ET on CBS (Buffalo, NY)
- Matchup: Michigan is a top team and a heavy favorite; Howard is a 16 seed play-in winner.
- Betting Line: Michigan favored by 31 points.
- Analysis: Michigan is motivated after a recent loss and plays a fast tempo, which suits a high-scoring game. Howard also plays uptempo but is not a strong offensive team.
- Over/Under: Opened at 149.5, bet up to 151.5.
- Recommendation: Lay the 31 points with Michigan.
3. Texas (11) vs. BYU (6) – 7:25 PM ET on TBS (Portland, OR)
- Matchup: Texas won their play-in game and carries momentum; BYU has struggled late in the season.
- Betting Line: Texas +2.5 points.
- Analysis: Historically, play-in winners often advance to the round of 32. Texas plays slower, BYU plays faster. Merrill favors Texas due to momentum and balanced offense.
- Recommendation: Take Texas +2.5 points.
4. Texas A&M (10) vs. St. Mary's (7) – 7:35 PM ET on True TV (Oklahoma City, OK)
- Matchup: St. Mary's is methodical and well-coached; Texas A&M is one of the fastest teams.
- Betting Line: St. Mary's favored by 3.5 points.
- Analysis: St. Mary's can dictate a slow tempo, which favors them. The total is around 147.5, which Merrill considers high.
- Recommendation: St. Mary's -3.5 and under 147.5 points.
5. Penn (14) vs. Illinois (3) – 9:25 PM ET on TNT (Greenville, SC)
- Matchup: Penn is an upset Ivy League champion but short-handed; Illinois is a strong offensive team.
- Betting Line: Illinois favored by 25.5 points.
- Analysis: Penn has key players out and is a mid-major team. Illinois is a dark horse with strong offense and extra rest.
- Recommendation: Lay the points with Illinois.
6. St. Louis (9) vs. Georgia (8) – 9:45 PM ET on CBS (Buffalo, NY)
- Matchup: Both teams had strong starts but cooled off late; St. Louis is a balanced team.
- Betting Line: Georgia favored by about 2.5 points.
- Analysis: Both teams play fast; St. Louis has strong shooting percentages despite a weaker schedule.
- Recommendation: Take St. Louis +2.5 points.
7. Kennesaw State (14) vs. Gonzaga (3) – 10:00 PM ET on TBS (Portland, OR)
- Matchup: Both teams play at a very fast pace.
- Betting Line: Gonzaga favored by 21 points.
- Analysis: When two fast teams meet, the better team usually wins. Gonzaga has better athletes and plays a high-scoring game.
- Recommendation: Lay the points with Gonzaga.
8. Houston (2) vs. Idaho (15) – 10:10 PM ET on True TV
- Matchup: Houston is a physical, dominant team; Idaho relies heavily on three-point shooting.
- Betting Line: Houston favored by about 23.5 points.
- Analysis: Houston is motivated after a recent loss and defends well. The total is around 138, indicating a slower game.
- Recommendation: Lay the points with Houston.
Betting Strategy and Money Management
- Merrill advises treating light leans with small bankroll percentages (around 1%).
- His daily free plays carry a stronger opinion (around 2%).
- The strongest plays, or "best bets," are rated at 4% of bankroll and are available on his website.
- He emphasizes the importance of money management and playing the strongest bets to build bankroll long-term.
Special Offers and Services
- Merrill offers various betting packages, including a March Madness special and NBA packages.
- Promotions include buy 3 days, get 3 days free, covering the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament and NBA games.
- One-year all-access packages provide plays for multiple sports throughout the year with a $500 discount.
Final Thoughts
Steve Merrill encourages viewers to subscribe and follow his channel for daily free plays and analysis throughout the NCAA tournament and NBA season. He values community interaction and invites comments and discussion on game picks.
Stay tuned for his upcoming Friday game predictions and enjoy the excitement of March Madness with informed betting insights.
This comprehensive guide aims to help bettors navigate the NCAA March Madness first round with expert analysis and strategic advice.
