Since April 2024, Iran has launched a sophisticated and escalating missile campaign targeting Israel's Nevatim Air Base, home to its advanced F-35 fleet and nuclear capabilities. Despite Israel's advanced missile defenses, Iran's improved strike accuracy and missile saturation tactics have increasingly penetrated defenses, raising concerns about Israel's interceptor stockpile depletion and the strategic balance in the Middle East.
In the midst of the most dangerous regional war the Middle East has witnessed since 1973, a critical military site in southern Israel, the Nevatim Air Base, has become the focal point of a sustained and escalating missile campaign by Iran. This campaign, ongoing since April 2024, challenges the prevailing narrative of Israel's invulnerability due to its advanced defense systems and strategic alliances.
Nevatim Air Base, located in the Negev desert, is considered by the Israeli Air Force as the most important military real estate in the country. Covering 50 square kilometers, it features hardened concrete structures, buried fuel lines, reinforced hangars, and runways designed for sustained warfare.
Nevatim hosts three squadrons of F-35I Adir stealth fighter jets — the 140th Golden Eagle Squadron, the 116th Flying Wing Squadron, and the 117th First Jet Squadron. These jets are Israel's most advanced aircraft, capable of deep strikes into Iranian territory undetected by radar.
The base also houses C130J Super Hercules transport aircraft, Boeing 707 aerial refueling tankers extending operational range, electronic intelligence and reconnaissance aircraft, and potentially nuclear-capable F-35s certified to carry tactical nuclear bombs.
Nevatim represents the convergence of Israel's conventional and nuclear strike capabilities, making it a prime target for Iran.
Iran's missile strikes on Nevatim have evolved significantly over two years, demonstrating increasing sophistication and effectiveness.
Iran launched approximately 350 projectiles, including 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles, targeting Nevatim. Israel and allied countries intercepted 99% of these, with only five ballistic missiles striking the base, causing minor damage. The base remained fully operational, and Israeli officials downplayed the impact.
Iran launched about 200 ballistic missiles in two waves, marking the largest direct attack on Israeli territory in the conflict's history. At least two dozen missiles penetrated Israel's air defenses, striking military and intelligence targets, including Nevatim and Telnoff Air Base, believed to store Israel's nuclear weapons.
Satellite imagery revealed at least 33 impact craters at Nevatim, with damage to hangars, taxiways, and support buildings. Israel acknowledged damage but insisted no aircraft were hit. Analysts suggested Israel deliberately chose not to fully defend Nevatim due to limited interceptor availability, prioritizing population centers like Tel Aviv.
Iran's missile penetration rate increased from 1.5% in April to nearly 20% in October 2024, indicating a rapid learning curve.
Following an Israeli surprise assault on Iranian military and nuclear facilities, Iran retaliated with over 550 ballistic missiles and more than 1,000 suicide drones. Six missiles struck key military and intelligence facilities, including Telnoff and Camp Glyot, with remarkable accuracy.
During this conflict, Israel's interceptor inventory was depleting rapidly, leading to a US-pressured ceasefire on June 24, 2025. Iran doubled its missile strike success rate during this engagement.
In response to a major US-Israeli aerial operation, Iran launched approximately 162 ballistic missiles at Israel, 39% of its initial barrage, while simultaneously attacking the UAE, Qatar, and maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf.
Iran conducted multiple waves of missile and drone attacks across nine countries, forcing Israel's air defense network to engage on multiple fronts simultaneously. This has led to significant depletion of Israel's interceptor stockpiles.
Israel's missile defense system, including Arrow 2, Arrow 3, David's Sling, and Iron Dome, was designed for a different threat environment. Iran's newer missiles, such as the Koramshar 4 and FATA series, use maneuvering re-entry vehicles that reduce interception probabilities.
The Arrow 4 interceptor, designed to counter these advanced warheads, is not yet deployed. Current defense stocks are under severe pressure, with limited manufacturing capacity and supply chain constraints, especially due to rare earth material export restrictions by China.
The ongoing missile campaign raises critical questions:
These questions are not hypothetical but are central to the strategic calculations of military operators.
Iran's missile campaign against Israel's most important air base has demonstrated a steep learning curve, increasing strike accuracy, and the ability to saturate and overwhelm Israel's missile defenses. Despite Israel's technological superiority and air dominance, the depletion of interceptor stockpiles and the evolving Iranian missile threat pose significant challenges.
The conflict's trajectory suggests a collision course between Iran's improving offensive capabilities and Israel's diminishing defensive resources. This dynamic will critically influence the future strategic balance in the Middle East and the potential for escalation or negotiated resolution.
Understanding this complex and evolving situation requires moving beyond simplistic narratives of missile interceptions to acknowledge the deeper vulnerabilities and strategic stakes involved.
