Flights are experiencing increased turbulence, particularly severe turbulence, due to climate change. Research indicates a significant rise in turbulence incidents, especially clear air turbulence, which poses challenges for pilots. Solutions include improved forecasting and technology, as well as personal safety measures for passengers.
It’s not just your imagination—flights are indeed more turbulent than they used to be. This increase in turbulence is not merely a minor inconvenience; we are witnessing severe turbulence that can throw loose objects and even passengers out of their seats. While flying remains one of the safest modes of transportation, the frequency and intensity of turbulence are on the rise, largely due to the climate crisis. In this article, we will explore the causes of turbulence, the impact of climate change, and what can be done to mitigate its effects.
If you have ever flown on an airplane, you are likely familiar with the sensation of turbulence. One moment, the flight is smooth, and the next, the seatbelt sign dings as the plane lurches. Turbulence occurs due to the movement of air, which is composed of various gases swirling around the planet. There are several types of turbulence:
Most of the time, pilots can avoid severe turbulence by using weather forecasts and air traffic control information. However, some turbulence, known as clear air turbulence, is invisible and can be particularly dangerous. It accounts for nearly a quarter of weather-related accidents, including injuries and aircraft damage.
While mild turbulence is common and usually manageable, severe turbulence poses significant risks. A notable incident occurred in May 2024, when severe turbulence on a Singapore Airlines flight caused the plane to drop 54 meters in less than five seconds, resulting in over a hundred injuries and one fatality. Investigations suggested that the turbulence may have been linked to regional storms.
Research indicates that turbulence has become more frequent over time. A 2023 study revealed a 55% increase in severe clear air turbulence over North America and Europe in the last 40 years. This study measured turbulence based on the amount of time airplanes spent in turbulent air annually.
The primary driver behind the increase in turbulence is climate change. A 2017 study modeled the atmosphere under pre-industrial conditions and compared it to future scenarios with higher greenhouse gas concentrations. The findings suggest that clear air turbulence could increase by 30 to 50 percent globally, with North America, Europe, and the North Pacific being the most affected regions. By the end of the century, severe turbulence could potentially double, although this would still represent a small percentage of overall turbulence.
The relationship between climate change and turbulence is complex, particularly concerning jet streams—massive rivers of air that encircle the planet. Two main factors are at play:
Currently, pilots utilize weather forecasts and onboard radar to navigate around severe turbulence. They aim to maintain a safe distance from storm clouds, typically keeping at least 32 kilometers away. However, recent research indicates that turbulence can extend over 90 kilometers from a storm, suggesting that current guidelines may need revision.
Advancements in technology, such as LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging), may help pilots detect atmospheric irregularities and avoid clear air turbulence more effectively.
For travelers concerned about turbulence, there are several safety measures to consider:
In summary, turbulence in air travel is becoming more common and severe, largely due to the impacts of climate change. While pilots are equipped with tools to navigate around turbulence, the invisible nature of clear air turbulence presents ongoing challenges. By understanding the causes and taking appropriate safety measures, passengers can better prepare for their flights in an increasingly turbulent atmosphere.
