The ongoing conflict near the Strait of Hormuz is severely disrupting critical supply chains for technology manufacturing, especially memory chips, helium, sulfur, and copper. This disruption is driving up prices and creating investment opportunities in semiconductor equipment, memory makers, nuclear energy, copper, and industrial gases. Understanding these dynamics can help investors position themselves for gains amid global instability.
In 2025, the US GDP grew at 2.2%, which seems average at first glance. However, when excluding the impact of data center expansion, growth in the first half of the year was only 0.1%, essentially flat. This highlights how data centers and AI infrastructure are currently carrying the entire weight of the US economy. Remarkably, 70% of the memory produced this year is going directly into these data centers.
The demand for memory chips is increasing, but the supply is crashing due to geopolitical disruptions. There are only three companies worldwide that manufacture memory at scale, and two of them source nearly two-thirds of their helium from Qatar. Helium is essential for producing memory chips, with no substitute available.
Currently, 30% of the world's helium supply has been offline for three weeks because it flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint affected by the Iran war. This situation is unprecedented as fabs (fabrication plants) typically maintain only a couple of weeks of inventory, which is now dangerously low.
While much attention is on oil disruptions, the real story lies in other critical resources flowing through the same chokepoint:
This creates a significant risk of technology sector disruptions that could be more severe than the oil disruption.
Qatar produces 33% of the global helium supply, marking the fourth helium shock since 2021. South Korea sources 64% of its helium from Qatar, and fabs only carry 2 to 4 weeks of helium inventory. Without helium, memory chip production will halt.
Additionally, the Gulf region produces 44% of the world's sulfur. Ultra-pure sulfuric acid is used to clean silicon wafers in chip manufacturing. Sulfur is also essential for extracting copper, which is used in every chip, circuit board, and data center cable. A sulfur shortage leads to a copper shortage, raising costs across the entire technology buildout.
Other materials affected include aluminum, noble gases for lithography lasers, and petrochemicals for chip packaging, all flowing through the same chokepoint and experiencing 10 to 18% inflation since the conflict began.
Unlike these past events, the current conflict disrupts six critical supply lanes feeding the technology stack and is an active conflict, not a temporary accident.
DRAM and SSD prices have increased 130% year-over-year, according to Gartner. Demand was already maxed out before the recent supply disruptions.
Previously, the OpenAI Stargate project locked Samsung and SK Hynix into producing 900,000 DRAM wafers a month, accounting for 40% of global output. However, Oracle and OpenAI scrapped plans to expand beyond 1.2 gigawatts in March 2025.
Despite this, Nvidia quickly brokered a deal with Meta to absorb that capacity, so demand did not decrease but shifted to a new player.
High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), required for AI servers, consumes 20% of wafer capacity but produces only 8% of the actual bits, making it four times more manufacturing intensive than standard memory chips.
SK Hynix and Micron have pre-sold their entire 2026 output. Micron has shifted entirely away from consumer memory to focus on data centers and recently posted its highest gross margins in company history at 75%.
The available supply will be significantly less than planned, constraining everything from AI servers to consumer electronics and data center buildouts.
History shows that during supply crunches, the biggest winners are companies that control scarce resources or benefit from responses to shortages.
Companies like ASML, Lam Research, Applied Materials, and KLA are poised to benefit. During the last chip shortage, this group saw revenue grow over 33% and margins above 52%. ASML alone returned over 310% in five years. Every new fab built to address shortages requires their machines.
Micron stands out due to its domestic helium sourcing, insulating it from Qatar-related disruptions. Samsung and SK Hynix are more exposed to these risks. During the 2017 DRAM supercycle, memory stocks rose over 100% in a year without geopolitical shocks. The current situation offers even higher near-term upside, though memory is cyclical.
With LNG prices spiking, electricity costs surge. Nuclear operators have fixed fuel costs, so margins expand as prices rise. Companies like Constellation Energy (up over 430% since 2022 spin-off) and Vistra (up nearly 700% over five years) are benefiting. Major tech companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are signing nuclear power purchase agreements for data centers to secure stable, reliable power.
There is a structural deficit of over 330,000 tons of copper, and new mines take 7 to 10 years to come online. Copper is essential in chips, circuit boards, and data center cables. The COPEX ETF has returned over 86% in the past 12 months.
Linde is the world's largest helium distributor and has been upgraded by JP Morgan due to the shortage. In an allocation environment, Linde passes costs through and protects margins. Air Products is similarly positioned.
If investing $100 across these sectors, a suggested breakdown is:
For those preferring ETFs over individual stocks:
The global instability caused by the Iran war and the resulting supply chain disruptions are painful but create significant investment opportunities. Understanding the critical resources affected and positioning accordingly can help investors capitalize on this unique environment. While the situation is complex and evolving, those who navigate it wisely may become the next wave of millionaires.
Thank you for reading, and may this analysis provide a valuable head start in your research and investment decisions.
