As of October 2024, Indonesia's state budget (APBN) shows a deficit of Rp309.2 trillion, reflecting a 1.37% deficit against GDP. Despite global economic challenges, the country's revenue has reached Rp2,207.5 trillion, achieving 80.2% of the target, while government spending has increased significantly, indicating a robust economic response.
In a recent briefing, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani announced the status of Indonesia's State Budget (APBN) for 2024, highlighting a deficit of Rp309.2 trillion as of October. This figure represents 1.37% of the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is lower than the deficit cap set in the budget law.
The 2024 APBN is being implemented under the leadership of President Prabowo and Vice President Gibran Rakabumi, following the recent elections. The budget execution has been closely monitored, especially in light of global economic conditions and the upcoming G20 and IMF-World Bank meetings in Washington, D.C.
As of October 2024, Indonesia's state revenue has reached Rp2,207.5 trillion, which is 80.2% of the target set for the year. This marks a 0.3% increase compared to the same period in 2023. On the expenditure side, the government has spent Rp56.7 trillion, which is 76.9% of the budget allocation, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 14.1%.
The reported deficit of Rp309.2 trillion is a critical indicator of the country's fiscal health. The primary balance remains positive, with a surplus of Rp97.1 trillion. The budget law for 2024 has set a deficit target of 2.29% of GDP, indicating that the current deficit is manageable within the established framework.
The global economic landscape has been turbulent, particularly with the recent U.S. elections where Donald Trump was re-elected. This political shift is expected to influence various policies, including tax reforms and international trade relations, particularly with China. The U.S. economy has shown resilience, with a third-quarter growth rate of 2.7% and a low unemployment rate of 4.1%. However, inflation remains a concern, currently at 2.4%.
In contrast, Europe is struggling with growth, with major economies like Germany and France facing challenges. The overall growth in Europe is only 0.9%, and inflation rates are still high. Meanwhile, China is grappling with a weak property market and local government debt issues, prompting the People's Bank of China to announce monetary stimulus measures.
Within the ASEAN region, Indonesia's economic growth is relatively strong, with a third-quarter growth rate of 4.95%. Neighboring countries like Vietnam and Malaysia are also showing robust growth, indicating a positive regional economic environment.
The Indonesian economy has shown resilience, with household consumption growing at 4.91% and investment (PMTB) increasing by 5.1%. Exports have also improved, growing by 9.09%, although imports have surged by 11.47%, raising concerns about the trade balance.
The manufacturing sector has demonstrated strong growth, particularly in labor-intensive industries such as footwear and textiles. However, agricultural growth remains subdued, and the government is optimistic about improvements in the upcoming harvest season.
Inflation in Indonesia is currently stable at 1.7%, significantly lower than in many developed countries. The financial markets have shown some volatility, particularly following the U.S. elections, but overall, Indonesia's currency and bond yields remain relatively stable compared to other nations.
As Indonesia navigates through a complex global economic landscape, the government remains committed to monitoring and managing the state budget effectively. The current fiscal deficit, while notable, is within acceptable limits, and the government is optimistic about maintaining economic stability through the end of the year. Continuous efforts will be made to support economic growth and ensure that the impacts of global events are mitigated effectively.
